> My feeling is that they can indeed be predictive. 

I notice that you use the word, "feeling".  That is the problem, we are feeeling our way around non this one.  I am not even sure that nosema, which we have always had in the environment is the root problem and not a symptom, and I am not sure that identifying a new atrain does not mean we have not lived with it successfully in the past for some time without the heroic measures we are now recommending.

> If you have an entranc average count of 50M spores, I'd feel confident in predicting that the colony is going downhill.

But that could be a freak peak from some drifting bee.

> I think that the point that you're trying to make is that we don't have a meaningful threshold level where treatment is economically justified.  To that I would agree.

I'd go beyond that and say I am not sure the threshold concept can be applied using current sampling methods, except in a very gross and inaccurate manner.

> That figure is likely different for N apis and N ceranae, and dependent upon protein availability, weather, mite levels, other colony stressors, etc.

Lets' add the time of year to that list.

> I wish that I could be more precise, but the data is just not there.

Agreed.  There are studies ongoing, but from what I hear with my ear to the wall is that individual experiments give quite clear results, but that those results are hard to replicate.

I don't think we have much of a clue about this one yet.  

What are your thoughts on taking entrance bees compared to bees from the outer edges of the lid or off honey frames, compared to samples from the brood frames?

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