>the  total number of hives has declined in the US.

As would be expected. hard to say what the total number of hives in the U.S.
would be today if almond pollination high fees and prices never dreamed
possible for bulk honey had not come along.

many beeks are accustomed now to these two things.I might say they need both
to be successful.  In beekeeping things never say the same. Honey prices
could drop quickly below a dollar and stay for awhile if loopholes are found
to get foreign honey in cheap.

Just like drugs and alcohol in prohibition the packers will buy cheap
imported honey with little questions asked.

If water is not released to almond groves then around 400,000 hives ( rough
figure I have been given ) will not be needed for almond pollination this
year and instead of the predicted $200 a hive figure  given for the present
time a few years back by the so called experts.  Some say ninety dollars a
hive might be the pricing. I don't know but these figures come from reliable
sources ( based on my prior experience on the subject).

None of us really can say for sure.

My point is that many of the these large beeks will need to downsize
accordingly if not able to rent hives into almonds and forced to sell honey
below the cost of production or even worse yet face what the large beeks
faced a decade ago when they  had warehouses full of honey asking a price in
the sixty cent a pound range and packers were not interested.

Beekeeping history has a way of repeating itself.

My way has always been to expand when necessary and contract in poor times.
Having a huge number of hives around when honey prices are *below the cost
of production* and not needed in pollination hurts the bottom line and can
seriously hurt profits ( personal experience).

A few predictions:
Unless the situation in California almonds changes ( water & nutmeat price)
then many out of state beekeepers (unless already under contract) will not
be able to rent hives into almonds. Also prospects for a better crop in
Argentina seems to be on the horizon. The 100 year drought in Argentina has
greatly effected U.S. honey prices.
Once the Argentines get even a normal honey crop bulk prices will fall. (
source the largest packer in the U.S.)

>I've thought this has happened at the cost of honey production in the US.

Many commercial beeks went out of business because they could not compete in
the markets with foreign honey prices.


> Has the number of hives used for pollination stayed the same or increased
> perhaps?

Certainly increased mainly due to California almond pollination. However the
Adee's had a sound business plan until it included a stop in California.
Many thought the company would not survive the *learning curve* losses but
seems they did.

David Hackenberg had had little trouble with his operation *until* he went
looking for the gold in California. The next year CCD!

Dave Mendez had a very successful operation on the east coast until he was
lured to California. He reported fifty percent losses the next year .

Part of the above ( my opinion) was caused by extending the varroa breeding
season and trying to treat as they had been for decades. A learning curve so
to speak.

The last time i counted my chickens before they were hatched I *lost my
shirt* so to speak in the exotic animal business. At least i did not buy six
pair of breeding ostrich  for $36,000 a pair like a friend did.!
I still remember our talks on what a money maker the ostrich business was
going to be. Not!



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