The value of bee hives to the nation has been greatly exaggerated. During WWII beekeeping was encouraged as a natural resource and the number of colonies went to 6 million. After the war, the realization came that this was far too many colonies, if beekeepers were to support themselves selling honey. There simply was not a demand for that much honey, so prices caved. 

At that point, the value of bees for pollination began to be more vigorously promoted. Meanwhile, the number of colonies sagged to 4 million, more accurately reflecting supply and demand. All the same, researchers and others claimed that if numbers continued to fall, a pollination shortage would ensue. In the 1990s the numbers of colonies plummeted due to low prices (caused by cheap imports) and the wipeout due to the varroa mite.

Pollination still was getting done, there were no reports of inadequate numbers of colonies. Until, that is, the almond industry astronomically increase the acreage planted to almond trees. Then, a shortage occurred, which led to the relaxing of restrictions on importing bees. Ultimately, the US beekeeping industry got the restrictions reinstated and mobilized to cash in on the almond boom. 

Fast forward to the current frenzy of interest in the Vanishing Bees (Time magazine, etc.). Where is the pollination shortage? How many hives are needed? Outgoing Professor of Apiculture Nicholas Calderone may provide us with an answer. He wrote:

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Despite attention given to pathogens, parasites and pesticides, those factors may not bear primary responsibility for the long-term downward trend in the number of US honey bee colonies which was underway well before the arrival of parasitic mites and problems with CCD. Although those factors may cause large losses each year, those losses are not directly reflected in the annual NASS estimates of the number of colonies because the beekeeping industry has proven remarkably resilient, replacing colonies that die throughout the year in time for the next season. 

This resiliency may be based on economic factors, especially the price of honey and opportunities for pollination contracts. Economic opportunities may play a greater role in explaining the long-term trend than other factors. If true, the number of colonies available for pollination should rise and fall in concert with demand for pollination contracts and other market opportunities, problems with parasites, pathogens and pesticides notwithstanding. The immediate problems for beekeepers and growers are the rise in operating costs associated with replenishing lost stock and the increase in pollination rental fees, respectively.

The pollinator shortage: Data indicate that the available number of colonies falls short of the number required to meet current recommendations. However, many beekeepers rent colonies more than once; so, total colony rentals are a more appropriate measure. The total number of rentals required to meet current recommendations was 30.40 million in 2010. If all colonies were rented for pollination, an overly optimistic assumption, each of the 2.68 million colonies in 2010 would need to have been rented 11.34 times. Surveys show that commercial beekeepers rent colonies an average of 2.2 times per year.

The difference between the actual and expected number of rentals can be explained several ways: 1) crops are not being adequately pollinated; 2) crops are adequately pollinated and recommendations for honey bees are greater than required, and/or 3) native bees are contributing more than previously recognized.

The production of DD Crops [Directly Dependent on pollinators] actually increased rapidly between 1992 and 2003, after which there was a slight downward trend. The most rapid growth occurred as the number of colonies declined most rapidly. Additionally, the yield of DD Crops remained steady from 1992 through 2009 despite a declining number of colonies. Those findings suggest that the decline of managed honey bee colonies has not yet resulted in a pollinator shortage.

SOURCE:
Decline in number of honey bee colonies and the pollinator shortage. Nicholas W. Calderone. Supporting Text (S4) for
Insect pollinated crops, insect pollinators and US agriculture: Trend analysis of aggregate data for the period 1992 – 2009

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Of course, you can see that the need for pollination is greatly oversold! Even if a the US hives were moved 10 times a year (which they aren’t) they could never meet the requirement of 30 million pollinating units! Of his explanations, 1 is out: crops ARE adequately pollinated. 3 is true, native bees do contribute, as you know. But the real reason is 2, the recommendations are grossly exaggerated.

Peter Borst

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