> I was speaking of the supply and demand curve which is influenced by the 
> real or anticipated supply of bees available for the almond pollination. 
> Certainly the Aussie package option has influenced that curve and Big Ag 
> Concerns are very familiar with those concepts that also affect commodity 
> prices etc.

Brian, you are very right. in a simplified case.   Where those lines are 
drawn, though, depends also on perceived risk.

The problem is that excess volatility wrecks a market and causes chaos. 
This particularly true in a thin and illiquid market with delivery 
deadlines.    If we did not have CCD events and other large die-offs, and 
deadlines, the basic theory would apply, but in extraordinary cases with a 
wildcard like CCD, we need to go further in analysis and decide how many 
businesses we can afford to lose.

As it is, good beekeepers are bankrupted when they have a sudden 
irreplaceable loss with a deadline coming up unless they have an escape 
hatch.

Frankly, I don't know how some of these guys keep on going.  Often, I think 
it is with the help of friends.  I am amazed at how close some of these 
commercial guys are.  Although they are competitors, they act like brothers.

At any rate, the importation serves to smooth fluctuations and prevent an 
even larger boom and bust cycle in pollination fees, and ensures that the 
job gets done.

(MacDonalds again, headed for the Keys).

 

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