Nobody in this discussion has mentioned "cross-elasticity of market".  In
simple terms, this refers to the notion that when the price of an item
changes, it may have an impact on the price of similar products.  In the
case of honey, these products might include corn syrup and refined sugar.
(Yes, I know they are different.  But in at least some applications they can
all be used.)  If bakers and soft drink makers must pay a lot for other
sweeteners, then honey becomes an attractive option, they buy more, and the
price goes up.  If the other sweeteners are cheap,  the large buyers will
select on price alone and not buy honey.
 
I also question whether large-scale honey producers ever really made their
money on honey, or if they became large through pollination contracts.  At a
time when feral bees are (depending on the study) possibly in short supply
due to mites and other causes, the price of a pollination contract should be
going up.  If honey is only a sideline for large producers with pollination
contracts, then these producers may be oversupplying the honey market.  This
forces down the price paid to smaller producers, who don't rent hives for
pollination.
 
In short, I think any discussion of the price of honey must look far beyond
the direct cost of production.