> However I would challenge the idea we have a shortage of honeybees in the USA. While the winter of 06/07 suggested a possible future shortage I have seen no indication of real shortages that caused any crop failures.

I agree with many of the points made, however, here is a prefect
example of how an average hides terrible economic damage.  If half the
population is starving and half overfed, are we all "fine"?  I suppose
it depends which half we are in -- today.

The problem is that good beekeepers -- third and fourth generation --
recently have suddenly discovered that 3/4 or more of their hives are
dead, and often when they have to deliver on contracts or face
financial ruin. This happens apparently at random.

Yes most are OK, and some doing very well, but the risk is high and
that justifies good returns for the lucky ones - while they are lucky.

The problem is that the industry is simply unable to replace those
kinds of losses in a timely manner, and the imports can.

Is there a shortage of bees in the USA?  Probably not on average, over
time, but there are acute shortages short-term and on local basis.

The problem is partly a question of prices.  At the current prices and
risk levels, US beekeeping continues to contract.  I did a study
several years back comparing Alberta and the rest of Canada and the
US.  I concluded that the closed border had hit Canada much harder
than any mites by cutting off and raising the cost and risk of
obtaining replacement bees required after unexpected losses --
especially at a time when we were suffering above normal loss!

I also concuded that he leading reason for the decline in the US
beekeeping numbers was the high US dollar and the low cost of imported
honey.

Seems to me that if you have to compete  with low cost imports of your
products, you are nuts not to take advantage of low cost imports of
supplies. ALL OTHER THINGS BEING EQUAL.  I guess that is what iis
under debate and the perspective changes depending on whether you have
enough bees today or do not.
---

That said, the reason I feel comfortabe criticising other studies is
that every time I do one myself, I am acutely aware how hard it is to
pove anything and how imperfect my own work is.

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