> I think we are back in the multiplier effect that we 
> encountered when CCD first started.

Interesting how your argument is presented as if it
were already proven fact, when there are a significant
number of CCD deadouts, and more operations seeing
either a reappearance of symptoms, or reporting
"new cases" of CCD. I sure that most of them did
not get the memo that requried them to report 
exact counts directly to you.

No, people are not calling press conferences to
announce that they have had significant losses
from CCD.  Gee, I wonder why.  Maybe it is because 
they would rather not have their ability to meet 
their pollination contracts come into question.  
Maybe it is because they are used to keeping things 
close to the chest. Maybe they'd rather not have 
a loan or two called by the bank, given that they 
have just lost a significant fraction of their 
revenue-generating hives.  Maybe they are afraid
that no one will ever buy or trade as much as
a single pallet of hives with them ever again if 
they admit to having CCD in their operation.

I really don't give a darn if the actual number is
2% or 30%.  If any other type of livestock or 
food crop was dropping dead at even a 1% rate for 
reasons unknown to the owner, and undiagnosable by 
both vets and Ag Extension reps, the National Guard 
would have been mobilized by now.

So, rather than bemoaning "hype", why not bemoan
the lackluster response even WITH the hype you
allege exists?  Isn't there a distinct lack of
a sense of urgency, regardless of the fact/hype ratio?

> Perhaps CCD is history repeating itself........
> A popular book in many college finance classes is  
> titled "Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the 
> Madness of Crowds" 

In just exactly how much distain can one hold the 
skills, ability, intelligence, and veracity of 
one's fellow beekeepers?  Delusion? Madness?
Crowd?  I think the use of these words means that
we have hit a new low.

No one is going to provide "proof" on a silver
platter to any random beekeeper who wants to
deny that there's a problem.  Why? Perhaps it
is because they are too busy working on the
problem to bother with "selling" you on the
advantages of working on the problem, so
that they can at least identify what it is
and exactly how serious it is.

> I blame that on those in the Easter[n] scientific
> community that wanted to publish at any price 

You don't understand scientists at all, do you?
Every single person involved dreads answering the
phone for fear that "the press" might be calling,
to misquote or misinterpret their words yet again.
Except for Lipkin, none of them have ever had 
anything even close to the "15 minutes of fame"
they experienced, and the universal conclusion
is that "fame" and "facts" rarely co-exist.

No big surprise, really, but one has to try to
live through it to grock that you never wanted
any of what it really turns out to be.

These guys are likely sorry they ever got involved 
in this at all, and to top it all off, accusations 
like the one above are the gratitude they get from 
the beekeeping community they stuck their necks out 
to try and help?

> as well as justify their expenditure of public funds, 

Uh huh, suuuure.  Like they really were hoping that
yet another freakin' bee disease would come along
and force them to drop the work that really interests
them, which is nearly 100% certain to NOT be bee diseases 
and pests or the prevention, cure and irradiation thereof.
Bee diseases are TEDIOUS and NON-REWARDING work to these folks.

Do you realize that except for some very minor funding from
sources like the NHB, everything done to date has been
done with money MISAPPROPRIATED from other projects?
Didya ever stop to think that scientists have bosses, 
and budgets, and internal auditors breathing down their 
necks, just like everyone else has?  Did I mention that 
any money from the Farm Bill is a long way off, and that
the $4 million USDA has re-allocated (from other funded 
projects) will be awarded to those who submit a "winning"
proposal for new work, and will have to be spent on that 
new work?

These guys could be left holding the bag on a "firing
offense" for simply doing the right thing, and responding
before they got solid funding through the proper channels.

And now you want to imply that their working on CCD
at all is merely a cynical mechanism to JUSTIFY some
sort of self-indulgent expenses?  Well, that would be
criminal fraud if it were even partly true, so you
better come up with either some very compelling 
evidence right now, or a very sincere apology 
very quickly.

The actual situation is that these folks decided to 
bet their jobs on reacting "now" rather than "later", 
and they did it because what they saw in their initial 
look-see convinced them that it was a clear and present 
danger - a problem of a serious nature.

Talk about irony - betcha more than one of them put
expenses on their personal credit cards, still have 
no idea if they will ever be reimbursed, and now
they read that they stand accused of some sort
of fraudulent misuse of funds!  As if they had any
funds at all for any of the work done to date!  

> as well as some beekeepers who were only 
> looking for the same public funds to bail them out.

Is no one safe from these indictments?
Is absolutely everyone either too stupid to diagnose
a failing colony, too self-interested to act ethically,
or so greedy as to sabotage their livelihood in the
hope of getting government largess that has not even 
been mentioned as a possibility?

No, I have a simpler answer, one that fits the data
plot much, much better.  

Just as with every new exotic invasive pathogen or pest 
to make it across the oceans to the US, the initial 
warnings are ignored by many beekeepers, as they don't 
see a problem themselves in their own hives.  That's not 
very surprising, because beekeepers have a track record 
of ignoring even very pointed warnings and advice until
the problem at issue starts to kill THEIR hives or
destroy THEIR combs.

It happened with tracheal mites, it happened with varroa,
it happened with miticide-resistant varroa, it happened
with the spread of AHB, and it happened with the small 
hive beetle.  There's some history repeating itself for ya.

Not to worry, help is on the way. C-130 transports carrying 
parachute teams of technicians from the International 
Directorate of English Aphorism Standards (IDEAS) have 
been scrambled out of Pensacola NAS, and are enroute 
to each of your locations.

They will carefully explain the very old one about 
"Pride Cometh Before A Fall" from Proverbs 16.

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