A new report from the U.S. Geological Survey is predicting La Nina will
bring a wet spring and summer to the U.S. Northwest and to the East Coast
region around the Appalachian mountains. The likelihood of flooding is
increased in these areas, says Michael Dettinger, a USGS hydrologist who is
one of the report’s authors. The report also predicts drought for the
Southwest, which has already experienced a dry winter, Dettinger added.
   The report was produced by the USGS, the Scripps Institution of
Oceanography in La Jolla, CA, and the Western Regional Climate Center in
Reno, NV.
   The results are based on statistical surveys of streamflows, a much more
reliable indicator of water availability than other variables, like amount of
rainfall or temperatures, Dettinger said. The USGS operates more than 7,000
streamflow gages across the U.S.
   Streamflows respond to climatic variations for a longer period of time,
Dettinger said, which allows for flow predictions that are useful several
months longer than can be expected when simply predicting precipitation.
   He said the report is aimed at assisting emergency managers and water-use
managers, who want to extend the lead time for important allocation
decisions, especially in the West.
   Don’t start sandbagging the hives yet. Dettinger said the same prediction
was made for last year, which was also a La Nina year. The predictions held
up in the West but the Northeast was stuck with a drought. “That was the only
time on record out of 12 times when the pattern didn’t hold. It was extremely
unusual.”
   To see the full press release, go to www.usgs.gov and look in the press
releases section.