On 13/09/2014 12:02 PM, randy oliver wrote:


>
> Because it actually takes a LOT of serendipity for a single spore to infect
> a colony.

IIRC Hornitzky says 5-10 is enough for a 1 day old larvae.
>
> Dr Mark Goodwin inoculated 5 nucs ea with either 50,000, 500,000, or
> 5,000,000 AFB spores fed in 100 mL of sugar syrup, and then monitored them
> for 3 months for signs of disease.

My understanding in a case like this is the fate of the spores in the 
syrup.  Some have to be fed to larvae.  It seems conceivable that all 
could be digested in 100ml, particularly in a nuc.  Again IIRC Hornitzky 
monitored some hives and disease took much longer to develop.

Goodwin used a lot of spores in a small amount of syrup.  A contaminated 
hive tool is not likely to be very infective, but we are dealing with 
millions of hives and zillions of bees.

Perhaps we need a biometrician.

Geoff Manning

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