Thinking Out Loud  -- Long Range Trends & Plans
 
October, 1996
 
    Almost everyone expected to see a dip in honey prices as extraction got
underway in the US.  Without the honey program to even out things, it would
be expected that beekeepers would be having to sell some honey to pay bills,
and packers would take advantage of this need to sell.
 
     The dip did not happen.  Furthermore, while there were a few areas with
very good crops, most areas are reporting middling to poor production.
 Without the expected dip, the price trend is more securely established
upward.
 
     Foreign competition seems less a threat, also.  There seems to be
developing a worldwide bee shortage, and at the same time, an increased
worldwide demand for honey.  Many developing countries are developing a taste
for honey along with their prosperity.
 
    Most of the prices I've heard are running a bit less than a dollar, with
over a dollar for a few sales of premium honeys.  I would not be a bit
surprised to see regular prices over a dollar this winter.
 
    Pollination prices are also bound to rise.  Many growers do not realize
that they are competing with the honey market for their pollination, but they
do.  There were a few cases last spring and summer, of beekeepers who
abandoned their customary pollination clients to push for more honey.  Apple
growers in the northeast, found some of their regular suppliers did not move
north to them, but rather stayed in Florida after orange blossom to take a
shot at the palmetto flow, or South Carolina for blackberry/gallberry.   So
there were spot shortages of bees, and growers desperate to find them.
 
    The same happened with later vegetable crops in the north, with
beekeepers all supered up, and unwilling to move bees to crops.  The stresses
of moving, the risks of pesticide losses, etc. just were not worth it,
considering the value of honey.
 
    This past spring was kind of a free-for-all in package, nuc, and queen
sales in the southeast.  Bad weather hurt, but the situation would still have
been manic without the bad weather.  I expect the demand for bees to be even
higher next spring, even if northern winter losses are not as severe.  Many
beekeepers replaced only part of their losses this year, and will be looking
for more.  Those who made a good honey crop; even those who were off a bit,
but got a good price, will be bankrolled for more bees, and the honey market
will push them to get more.
 
    A lot of people have noticed the lack of pollinators.  I have gotten a
number of inquiries from gardeners, who are thinking of getting into keeping
bees.  Add to this the fruit growers who will be trying to get a corner on
more early bees for their pollination, and you have potential for a large
demand.
 
   An unknown is the US - Canada situation.  With varroa moving into Canada,
there is less reason for the border closure, and there is some pressure for a
reopening of the border.  Our Canadian friends may be able to comment better
on the possibility.
 
   All in all, it boils down to one simple fact:  If you want to obtain more
bees next spring, you should be starting to plan now.   Any good beekeeper
who can overwinter a strong hive, can make that cow give him a calf in the
spring.  In some areas, by good planning and care, he or she can make it give
up two or three "calves."  If your honey flow is late, this can be a very
good technique for increase.  If it is early, you will give up part of your
honey production to get more bees.
 
    Anyone who wants to purchase bees should be talking with the sellers as
early as possible.  Most sellers come out with a new price list about the
first of the year.  There are some, who would probably still honor this years
prices, for orders paid up before the new year.  One should be careful to
deal only with outfits with a good reputation for this kind of deal, but it
is a possible way to hedge against fairly certain price increases.
 
    The traditional rule of thumb, in purchasing beehives is a penny to the
dollar.  that is, if honey is bringing 50 cents, a hive should cost fifty
dollars.  And dollar honey would then mean hundred dollar hives.
 
    That's not to say good deals cannot be found.  But, if you plant to buy,
you might want to start checking out the scene right now.  Maybe you can find
a retiring beekeeper, or a beekeeper's heir, whose bees are still alive.  It
has been done, though it often turns out to be a lot of extra work, and
possibly foulbrood.   I once had 18 hives (survivors of 40 some-odd hives)
given to me, by someone who had been gung ho, and then lost interest.  The
bees had not been worked in several years.  I was young and foolish, and
thought my ship had come in.  But the hives had mostly died out, been eaten
up by wax worms, then replenished by swarms.  After you clean up a bunch of
bees, with combs built crossways to the frames, not to consider the termites,
you think again about accepting such a gift.
 
    Another time I had a pickup truckload of equipment given to me; mostly
deep supers, with foundation in the frames.  It was all homemade, even the
frames. To my consternation, (after hauling it home), it was all slightly off
size!
 
    Anyone with a lot of good healthy bees should be sitting on a gold mine
next spring.
I wish I were in that position.  Unfortunately we have been knocked down
again with pesticide losses this season.  This cuts our supply, and it looks
like a lot of our increase will again go to make up our own losses.  It is
sickening to see how few hours it takes for bees that are hanging out the
front, to be transformed back into nucs.
 
    Oh, well........never hurts to think and dream.....  Please forgive my
ramblings......
 
    I'd love to hear other comments.
 
[log in to unmask]    Dave Green,  PO Box 1200,  Hemingway,  SC
29554        (Dave & Jan's Pollination Service,  Pot o'Gold Honey Co.)
 
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