Suggesting that this may have been a large mating swarm is quite interesting. 

The explanation for why hived swarms sometimes abscond due to  a partially mated virgin makes sense to me and questions the wisdom of confining such swarms for a day or two until they settle in.  

Of course the queen can fly after the confinement and the colony is less likely to follow, but by then the queen may be laying and less likely to complete her mating.  Dunno.

Mention of a clipped queen (or weak queen) being lost in the grass in front of the hive is interesting.  I'm not arguing, but I would have thought the swarm would then cluster on her in the grass, for a while at least.  

I have seen many swarms on the ground somewhere out in front of hives over the years.  I've also seen swarms that bivouac then return home.

Bees don't read our books, watch YouTube, or consult our BEE-L gurus, so they don't know how to behave 'right' to suit our expectations. 

Although in general honey bees are predictable, there are occasions where they do things we simply cannot explain.

‘They might or they might not,’ said Winnie-the- Pooh. ‘You never can tell with bees’”

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