> Seeley has observed prime swarm surviability is much greater than after swarms; the issues involve finding quality nesting sites and the cast swarms starting later in the year.
Seeley studied only "pristine natural" environments, where swarms had only a choice of natural tree cavities.
In an area where bees have their choice of multiple man-made cavities, often of far more generous sizes than a tree might offer, and invariably heated in winter, one should expect different results.
I have partnered for years with a pest control company, who has all the power tools, trucks, ladders, scaffolding, liability insurance, and workman's comp one could ever want, plus a decent craftsman to do wallboard and brick work as needed. We do removals from mostly older brick buildings, most cutting from the inside, but sometimes from the exterior, which is much more fun 6 stories up. There seems no end to places where bees can quietly set up and take advantage of both generous space and free insulation and heat in winter, the favorite being the traditional "between the floor studs" space, most often placing the bees above a bedroom ceiling, invariably occupied by one or more small children. So, we have some child-sized bee suits, suit them up, and let them watch, which is marketing genius on the part of the pest-control company.
With a generalized warming trend, swarms have more fall blooms and more time to prepare for winter, so even a swarm in August has a chance to gather stores, if reoccupying a cavity with some existing comb from a deadout.
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