>
> > If the effect was due to mite crashes,  they would start earlier in the
> season in the south as they are ahead of the northern states in brood/mite
> development.
>

As pointed out by others, that's not the way it works.  The crash comes
after the colony begins to downsize in late summer, due to reduced
broodrearing.

>
> >The  2.5 number was the amount that successfully emigrated from any one
> hive,  why do you think it would be any different in a "typical apiary"???
>

The study involved only a very few hives, widely spread.  I would not run
too far with the 2.5%, although the low percentage did surprise me.  The
more important data sets are those which count incoming mites.

>
> >I don't know why you chose 1 in 40.
> >Typical yard size I was referencing the test method there,  not total
> mite levels.
>

Suggesting that only one hive in a yard of 40 would have excessively high
mite levels may be an underestimation.  Certainly so in my own operation.

Thanks for the kind words on the math Charlie.  My model now correctly
predicts the mite levels that we observe in alcohol washes in my operation
throughout the season, incorporating the effects of splitting, and
typically three mite treatments.

I'm finding that understanding colony growth, as well as varroa growth, is
all about the math.  Good math needs good assumptions and hard data.  I'm
hungry for good data from any source--including anyone on the List.

-- 
Randy Oliver
Grass Valley, CA
www.ScientificBeekeeping.com

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