Hi all
Queen loss is a regular part of the honey bee existence. Hence, the need for bees to produce new colonies and the need for the beekeepers to do this as well. The following suggests 20% failure rate for new queens.

It is known only from Mediterranean bees such as Apis
melli/era syriaca, lamarckii, intermissa, and sicula that the virgins
stay together peacefully in their mother hive for some time (Ruttner
1988), thus forming a temporary polygynous colony during the mating
period. In the other races, a young gyne tries soon after emergence
to dominate the colony by killing off all other queens. In case of
prime swarms, the old queen has already left before the first virgin
appears. Severe fights between the young queens can be observed. If
not hindered by the workers, they usually struggle and sting until
only one survives. The honey bee workers never eliminate a virgin of
their own nest. Since the monogynous status of the colony is
achieved several days before the remaining virgin is mated and
ovipositioning beginning later on, there is a considerable risk of
loosing the young queen in between, the chance being estimated at 20%

ENGELS, W. (1990). SOCIAL INSECTS: An Evolutionary Approach to Castes and Reproduction.

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