>My educated guess is that a hive will last until it swarms, and then does not get the virgin away.  


That is the inevitable fate among colonies that do not succumb to disease or pest, along with failed supercedure (due to lack of successful mating) which can occur anytime but is guaranteed from late fall until early spring due to the lack of drones.

If mating success is a trait, wouldn't selecting from long lived colonies according to Peter's definition good promote less failed matings?

I know a beekeeper whose account is reliable that has two colonies starting their eighteenth spring with an uninterrupted queen line.

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