Hi all
I asked my friend Tom Seeley about this topic and he said: "I don't know of strong evidence one way or another on this issue."
Meanwhile, I have found extensive research into the phenomenon in ants. Ants and bees have similar lifestyles, in that they form long living colonies, spend a lot of time in dark cavities, etc. This research showed a distinct difference between the behavior of tropical species and cold climate species.
The species which live in harsh winter environments have a cycle very much like what we have been discussing. As foraging begins to end in fall, and cold weather sets in, brood rearing ceases. Then, during the extreme cold period in January, it resumes. Experiments were done to show that absent this cold period, the colonies would eventually resume breeding but not as vigorously as colonies exposed to extreme cold.
Heather Matilla wrote about how the cessation of pollen intake in fall would bring about the cessation of brood rearing. Some authors have suggested that there is a dormant period of two or three months, following a dearth, and then a resumption based on an interval of time. This would be beneficial in subtropical climates where there are seasons that are not related to cold but to rainfall.
However, very cold weather as a trigger seems to be entirely plausible. This would account for reports of bees housed indoors at constant temperatures not starting to raise brood in January but holding off till they are moved outside. Seeley & Visscher conducted a study where they caged the queens to prevent winter brood rearing and the colonies were much smaller in summer as a result (as you would expect).
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The present study makes clear that the seasonal timing of brood rearing is critical, yet we know next to nothing about how colonies regulate the onset of brood production
Seeley, T. D., & Visscher, P. (1985). Survival of honeybees in cold climates: the critical timing of colony growth and reproduction. Ecological Entomology, 10(1), 81-88.
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