>Actually, math is the basis, but some understanding of probabilities and
risk management is also crucial.  Unfortunately learning these concepts
tends to separate one from the crowd and make one seem "illogical" to
the uninitiated.

I have 3 questions I often ask myself.  Once I answer these 3 questions, I can easily make a decision.

What do I have to lose?
What do I have to gain?
What are my alternatives?

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