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Date: | Mon, 17 Sep 2012 02:18:37 -0600 |
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How to Fool Yourself—And Others—With Statistics | William M. Briggs
http://wmbriggs.com/blog/?p=2179
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The use of statistical analysis to draw conclusions from seemingly
confused data is one of my biggest concerns about the studies we read
and (try to) believe. I really wonder how valid much of the statistical
analysis used to arrive at conclusions we use for bee management
actually was. I seldom see the details and often the statistical work
is mentioned with a quick phrase that sounds authoritative, but does not
tell us the details.
We often base economically important decisions on the results of
studies, (although actual commercial beekeepers who live or go broke by
the results of their beekeeping tend to be highly skeptical about what
they read, and often, it seems, consider beekeeper coffee clatche
scuttlebutt more trustworthy). Personally, I have had a problem
reconciling my real world experience with what I would have expected
from some studies I have read.
Often we don't see the data or how the data was selected, then filtered,
or the distributions and assumptions used. Often we don't know whether
the researchers actually understood the requirements for proper use of
the tools and did the job themselves, or just farmed out the job to an
expert who did not actually understand the intricacies of bee biology
and behaviour or how the data was collected and possibly previously
filtered and/or selected.
I also wonder how qualified reviewers are to critique the statistical
aspect of studies they read -- or if they are given sufficient data to
do so.
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