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Date: | Wed, 13 Mar 2013 13:26:35 -0400 |
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> Later in the paper, the author has the gall to attack the idea of a
> 95% confidence interval. Good grief!
I wouldn't play Russian Roulette with a 20 round chamber? You?
Would you drive to work every day if your odds were 95% of arriving alive?
That is the difference between real science and the rest of them
Would NASA have ever put a man on the Moon and brought him back with a
95% confidence interval? Their motto is "Failure is not an option". In
space there is no reward for failure or 95% "certainty", but in some
earthly endeavours, the punishment for failure is another, bigger grant
to continue to look the wrong direction, in the wrong places.
We have been rocked to sleep by easy answers and pseudo stats, many made
to order.
In the real world, 95% certainty is not good enough for anything
mission-critical, or basically anything except preliminary work or
political telephone polls.
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