>BTW, we're not hearing much bragging from the no treatment guys lately.

I don't wish to speak for others, but I run into a number of them in the
10-40 hive range.  Annual long-term losses as best I can tell after
questioning generally appear to be in the 30-40% range (slightly above the
norm for US beekeepers in general).  They make up with splits and captured
swarms.  I generally have a hard time getting metrics such as honey
production from them, but some appear to do just fine--equaling or
exceeding the region average.  But these are actual beekeepers, rather than
"bee havers."

Lots of small-scale beekeepers can go several years without treatment if
apiaries are very small.  But again, hard to get statistics.

But overall, I get the impression that treatment-free beginners generally
suffer a very large percentage of varroa/DWV losses in the second or third
year of a colony.  It largely depends upon the bee stock, and quality of
husbandry.
-- 
Randy Oliver
Grass Valley, CA
www.ScientificBeekeeping.com

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