This is a rather interesting read that showed up in my inbox this morning:
http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2010/12/13/101213fa_fact_lehrer?currentPage=all
...talking about the "decline effect" (not a short read, but worthwhile).

this also makes me think of the recent discussions on doing bee research and controls.  i'm no math or statistics whiz by any "mean" (sorry, couldn't resist), but to me it seems that the sledgehammer approach would be to run multiple control groups (ie, instead of 50% control and 50% experimental using 25% control 25% control 25% control 25% experimental).

when we were fooling around with yeast and hive treatments, after a few initial tests, i worked very hard to be able to run 6 "controls" at once and have them all come out the same consistently (not just once).  these tests only lasted a few hours and were confined inside glass jars, so getting the controls to match consistently was as easy as using a thermostatically controlled water bath....bees (and complex microbial cultures) aren't so easy.

given that none of us here could consistently put 2 equal hives next to one another and expect them to remain equal over a season (over 2 seasons, over 3 seasons) without a fair amount of intervention, it seems hard to believe that 2, 4, or even 8 colonies can serve as a reasonable control for testing anything.

of course, the problem we will have if we use several control groups with bee research is that the control groups are likely to differ enough to cast doubt on the results.  this is not directed towards any research or researcher...but a real problem with the validity of results in general, and with bees in particular.

deknow

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