> >Randy, do you and others agree with the following report that
> a honey bee supply crisis could be looming due to
> "unsustainable average operational losses?


Paul, I'm no economist, and I also feel compassion for beekeepers who face
devastating losses.

However, the recent history of supply and demand for bees in Calif almonds
may be instructive.  Despite CCD, drought, pesticides, varroa, etc, when the
demand for bees for almond pollination drove the offered price up,
beekeepers were able to respond by increasing the supply.

Many beeks (myself included) routinely make plenty of increase every
season.  It is not difficult to double your number of overwintered colonies
each spring.  If you're willing to forgo some of your honey crop, you can
increase by a factor of 3 or 4.

It appears to me that the supply of bees depends mainly upon financial
motivation.  High prices for pollination rent or for honey motivate
beekeepers to produce more colonies.  Low prices make it unprofitable to do
so.

So the question is not really about operational losses, but how much the
market is willing to pay for pollination and honey.  If honey sold wholesale
for $10 a pound, I imagine that industrious beekeepers would expand their
numbers of colonies within a year.

So any looming supply crisis would be driven only by lack of demand.

Randy Oliver

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