> the GW computer models have been incorrect over the past several years while the Farmer's Almanac has not. 

As anyone who's been caught in a downpour without an umbrella knows, predicting the weather is no simple task. This is especially true of long-term forecasting. Yet since 1818, the Farmers' Almanac - published annually from its Lewiston, Maine offices - has been trying to do just that for the continental United States. Can you really predict the weather a year from now?

Penn State meteorologist Paul Knight is more than a little skeptical. "The ability to predict events that far in advance is zero," says Knight. "There's no proven skill, there's no technique that's agreed upon in science to be able to do that." 

Says Knight, even with the advanced technology, it is still difficult for meteorologists to forecast things like rainfall very far in advance. "For precipitation, I don't know anyone short of the prophet Elijah who has any skill in foretelling precipitation more than a couple weeks, perhaps a month in advance," he says. 

http://www.rps.psu.edu/probing/almanac.html

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