A few comments made about a year ago, towards the crop forcast in South 
America, 


>No fit intended. Just applying some logic and facts to the 
>speculation. 
> 
>To summarise my points relating to the Argentinean crop: 
> 
>1. Recently crop estimates have not matched recorded exports.  So the 
>estimates have greatly understated the crop. 
> 
>2.  They have 4,000,000 hives.  A huge increase - reporting may not 
>be keeping up with these changing dynamics. 
> 
>3. Their current hive numbers will produce at least 100,000 tonnes if 
>they equal a previous *worst* crop situation. 
> 
>4. Worst crops are always accompanied by lots of noise of disaster, 
>requests for Govt. assistance, other affected industries etc. and the 
>noise is LOUD and nationwide.  Their own monthly (Feburary) honey 
>report does not support a nationwide failure ("worst crop for xxxxx 
>years") of the honey crop. 
...>The same thing happened in the US 2006 crop.  A lot of noise about 
>crop failures etc.  Outcome?  70,000 tonnes down from 79,000 the 
>previoius year and 23% down on average (remember decreasing hive 
>numbers). 
> 
>Initial crop estimates are normally excessive. i.e. our experience is 
>that final crop outcomes *always* move towards the average from early 
>crop estimates.  It seems it is just human nature to embellish and 
>embrace the "newsworthy". 



These conditons and factors didnt hold and the actual outcome of that crop 
could be considered a disaster.  Very little carry over and poor 
production.  What are the current conditions south American beekeepers 
have and/or are experiencing, what kind of South Americian 
crop are we experincing on the market place as of now? 

There has been a trade of white honey here for 1.35$/lbs.  Where is the 
market going to go? 

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