> >>That's not what the grapevine is saying.

> No use getting in a fit over speculated new crop talk.

No fit intended. Just applying some logic and facts to the 
speculation.

To summarise my points relating to the Argentinean crop:

1. Recently crop estimates have not matched recorded exports.  So the 
estimates have greatly understated the crop.

2.  They have 4,000,000 hives.  A huge increase - reporting may not 
be keeping up with these changing dynamics.

3. Their current hive numbers will produce at least 100,000 tonnes if 
they equal a previous *worst* crop situation.

4. Worst crops are always accompanied by lots of noise of disaster, 
requests for Govt. assistance, other affected industries etc. and the 
noise is LOUD and nationwide.  Their own monthly (Feburary) honey 
report does not support a nationwide failure ("worst crop for xxxxx 
years") of the honey crop.

Argentina is a large country with diverse geographical regions.  The 
larger the country and more diverse it is, the more stable the honey 
crop.  e.g. the USA crop has averaged 91,000 tonnes since 1980.  Its 
largest was 15% higher and smallest 25% lower - with decreasing hive 
numbers.  Based on kilos per hive, Argentina has had crops 31% lower 
and 20.5% higher than average.  The bandied figures of 60-100,000 
tonnes give a range that would be between 31% and 114% lower than 
average.  This is not suported by the available information as above.

The same thing happened in the US 2006 crop.  A lot of noise about 
crop failures etc.  Outcome?  70,000 tonnes down from 79,000 the 
previoius year and 23% down on average (remember decreasing hive 
numbers).

Initial crop estimates are normally excessive. i.e. our experience is 
that final crop outcomes *always* move towards the average from early 
crop estimates.  It seems it is just human nature to embellish and 
embrace the "newsworthy".

Regards,
Peter Bray_________________________________________________________
Airborne Honey Ltd., Pennington St, PO Box 28, Leeston, 
New Zealand Fax 64-3-324-3236,  Phone 64-3-324-3569  
http://www.airborne.co.nz  [log in to unmask]

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