> Can anyone point out error in my logic?
The logic is prolly OK. The assumptions are generally where theories go
wrong IMO.
ARS has a free program called VarroaPop which can be downloaded. Also we
have discussed various models, including at least on online form here in
the past. A quick search of the archives should turn these discussions up.
They were fairly exhaustive, as I recall. Sorry I can't do it for you since
I am not connected to the 'net at the moment I am writing this.
(Maybe Aaron should change the tagline to include a pointer the archives or
mention they are at the address mentioned there, since many don't seem to
know about them).
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