<[log in to unmask]> wrote:

>I speculate that a bit of global warming would benefit my bees.  Upstate
New York is a harsh climate on honey bee colonies.

Yes, but we don't know how warming would affect us and if it would be a
benefit at all. It might cause the bees to build up earlier, only to suffer
setbacks during a rainy, damp spring. Like having fruit trees bloom too
early puts them at risk for losing the fruit set due to seasonal frost.
Warming might be good for some and not for others. In the south it could
create drought.

Underlying this, however, is: what does it mean to be informed and what is
the role of science in our lives? I certainly wouldn't dismiss global
warming prediction because it depends on computer modeling. Computer models
are supplied with increasingly excellent data. For example:

New NASA Technology Helps Forecasters in Severe Weather Season

When severe thunderstorms and tornadoes strike, communities often have only
a few precious minutes to react. New NASA technology and satellite data is
giving weather forecasters the tools they need to improve warning lead
times, critical in ensuring the public can get to shelter before a storm.

NASA relies on its Earth-observing satellites and models to understand the
way the atmosphere, lands and ocean interact. Satellite data, including
surface wind data from QuikScat and rainfall data from the Tropical Rainfall
Measuring Mission (TRMM) enhances NOAA's weather model forecasts. Recent
research has suggested that adding NASA satellite data and model output to
NOAA forecasts could increase tornado warning lead times by 18 minutes.

NASA's Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center at
NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center is working with NWS meteorologists
across the southern United States to improve severe weather forecasting.
SPoRT provides real-time lightning data to surrounding NWS forecast offices
for use in weather warning decision making.

Finally, scheduled for launch in June 2004, NASA's Aura satellite will
provide temperature and moisture information. That data will provide a
clearer atmospheric picture, and will help improve computer model weather
forecasts

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