I guess I'm a bit of an outsider here, so I have to be careful, but it
seems to me that the China problem and the Argentine levy have put such
pressure on US honey prices that would be a real danger of wrecking the
whole system of production, packaging and distribution that has grown up
over the years and also losing the dedicated honey market in the process,
if not for some imported honey being able to reach the US market.

Price competition from centralised economies and/or semi-feudal societies
that do not share the US standards or cost environment is what has been
destroying the US bee industry.  The problem is not imported honey as such,
but rather imported honey sold too cheap for all but a few US producers to
compete.

The recent sudden interruption in supply -- for two simultaneous
coincidental and unrelated reasons -- is a highly artificial and
unsustainable situation.  It is a transient condition that puts huge stress
on the whole honey production and distribution system in North America.
It is very important to recognise that without some outside supply of honey
at some price, there simply would not be enough honey to supply traditional
US demand.  Many habitual buyers would have to do without honey, and
perhaps find substitutes.  That does not benefit the honey industry.   An
orderly market benefits all particpants.

If all outside honey were suddenly banned from the US, the US beekeeper
could not nearly supply the entire US market -- in the short term, at
least.  The price would spike incredibly for a short period and destroy the
market for a long time to come.  It would be tough to conduct business
because so many people would be going broke or getting out, and everyone
would be very wary.

Huge spikes in price do damage to the low margin brokers and packers and
raise the risk to the point where anyone handling honey must expect high
profits to justify the risk, or just stand back.  Uncertainty raises costs
and scares off participants.

If US producers want buyers to be there in the future, US wholesale and
retail prices cannot be perrnitted to spike out of reach of consumers.
Agreements and contracts for supply must be able to be honored.  Supplies
from Canada and Argentina -- if sold at prices that do not injure the US
beekeeper -- can fill the part of the market that the US industry cannot.
This benefits everyone a long as there is a level -- or reasonably level --
playing field for all.

In this current price squeeze, the peak will likely be somewhere around
$1.50 US.  This price range is manageable for all IMO, although it will be
hard on the packers for a change.  These prices, though are somewhat
artificial, and in the long run an increase in supply will come on the
market -- some from within the US, as US beekeepers ramp up production --
and some from outside.

Hopefully the inevitable increase in supply that will follow this price
rise will not be so great that the market will be swamped from the new
production a year down the road, at a time when we can expect China to get
its act in order.

allen
http://www.internode.net/honeybee/diary/