A really good presentation about confirmation bias in climate sciences
could be found here. A must read!!
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/11/01/thank-you-matt-ridley/#more-50468

That’s *lesson number 4:* the heretic is sometimes right.

What sustains pseudoscience is confirmation bias. We look for and welcome
the evidence that fits our pet theory; we ignore or question the evidence
that contradicts it. We all do this all the time. It’s not, as we often
assume, something that only our opponents indulge in. I do it, you do it,
it takes a superhuman effort not to do it. That is what keeps myths alive,
sustains conspiracy theories and keeps whole populations in thrall to
strange superstitions.

Bertrand Russell* pointed this out many years ago: “If a man is offered a
fact which goes against his instincts, he will scrutinize it closely, and
unless the evidence is overwhelming, he will refuse to believe it. If, on
the other hand, he is offered something which affords a reason for acting
in accordance to his instincts, he will accept it even on the slightest
evidence.”

*Lesson number 5:* keep a sharp eye out for confirmation bias in yourself
and others.

There have been some very good books on this recently. Michael Shermer’s “The
Believing Brain<http://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/product/0805091254/ref=as_li_ss_tl?ie=UTF8&tag=bishil-21&linkCode=as2&camp=1634&creative=19450&creativeASIN=0805091254>”,
Dan Gardner’s “Future
Babble<http://rcm-uk.amazon.co.uk/e/cm?lt1=_blank&bc1=000000&IS2=1&bg1=FFFFFF&fc1=000000&lc1=0000FF&t=bishil-21&o=2&p=8&l=as4&m=amazon&f=ifr&ref=ss_til&asins=0753522365>”
and Tim Harford’s
“Adapt<http://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/product/1408701529/ref=as_li_ss_tl?ie=UTF8&tag=bishil-21&linkCode=as2&camp=1634&creative=19450&creativeASIN=1408701529>”*
are explorations of the power of confirmation bias. And what I find most
unsettling of all is Gardner’s conclusion that knowledge is no defence
against it; indeed, the more you know, the more you fall for confirmation
bias. Expertise gives you the tools to seek out the confirmations you need
to buttress your beliefs.

Experts are worse at forecasting the future than non-experts.

Philip Tetlock did the definitive experiment. He gathered a sample of 284
experts – political scientists, economists and journalists – and harvested
27,450 different specific judgments from them about the future then waited
to see if they came true. The results were terrible. The experts were no
better than “a dart-throwing chimpanzee”.

Here’s what the Club of Rome said on the rear cover of the massive
best-seller Limits to Growth in 1972*:

“Will this be the world that your grandchildren will thank you for? A world
where industrial production has sunk to zero. Where population has suffered
a catastrophic decline. Where the air, sea and land are polluted beyond
redemption. Where civilization is a distant memory. This is the world that
the computer forecasts.”

“Science is the belief in the ignorance of the experts”, *said Richard
Feynman.*

*Lesson 6.* Never rely on the consensus of experts about the future.
Experts are worth listening to about the past, but not the future.
Futurology is pseudoscience.
Juanse Barros J.
APIZUR S.A.
Carrera 695
Gorbea - CHILE
+56-45-271693
08-3613310
http://apiaraucania.blogspot.com/
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