Hi Bill,

You said:

"Most of those studies used  levels higher than in nectar, some by a factor
of 20 or more.When realistic doses were used, there were no apparent
problems. The researchers had to up the dose to see what would happen."

You know, that could be true.  I don't know....I've read others who dispute your point here, and that is not my area of expertise.  I do think there are so many layers of complexity that we all get frustrated.  Since sick bees (usually doesn't matter what affects them) die off quickly when the hive is "booming", it's not too noticeable when there is a sub-lethal issue "on board"...so I am somewhat skeptical when people claim no noticeable effect.   However, the days when my dad, grand-dad, and great-grand-dad had 10 supers on hives that were taller than them (they were all over 6 feet) are gone....just photos are left.  And yes, I agree with you that lots of other things can explain why hives die in the spring (or fall, or whenever).

This is where I started contributing to the list, really.  I was/am wondering if there is a way to model the situation in a "proactive" way.  I am not thinking about a mathematical model that would "explain observations" but rather, one that would somehow keep track of many of the variables, perhaps lumping similar ones together, yet give people a good reason for thinking one factor or group of factors is "the most important problem to solve".

Consider people in prosperous countries today.  We have more immune system diseases than ever.  We have epidemic obesity and diabetes.  Cancer is rampant.  People say it's because we live longer...but it's not...these problems start at younger and younger ages.  Every year we get hit with new 'flu viruses (usually from Asia) and all sorts of other pests plague us.  We travel around the planet just like the bees, catching everything there is to catch and making ourselves sick.  But we aren't dying by the billions like the bees are.  How come?  Why are they dying from viruses but we aren't?  Do they have "Honeybee HIV"?  Or are they just so stupid now that their brains are scrambled from nACh agonists that they don't know how to take care of themselves anymore?

Occam's Razor.  Can we start with Haber's Rule?  "Haber's rule states that Dt = c, where D is dose, t is time, and c is a constant."  I bought the stats text recommended to me by Lennart, and I confess it's daunting....I come up with all kinds of excuses not to dig in and try to learn how to make a math model.  But hopefully I'll learn something there, and maybe interest an expert in thinking about this.  Maybe it won't amount to anything.  But, we can't give up trying different ideas.  Hopefully somebody will get it right!

Christina

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