In regards to:
 
> From:         Justin Schmidt <[log in to unmask]>
> Subject:      Bee sting hype
 
> People, including beekeepers love to worry about diminishingly
> improbably events.  Take for example the ibuprofen flurry lately.
> Simple statistics can be enlightening...
 
Yes, but one of the first things one learns and the last thing one
should forget in a first level statistics class is that there are lies,
damned lies, maps and statistics!  You can (and did) work the figures
such that the occurrences of a correlation between "Any-profen" and
anaphylactic shock or death are small, even negligible.  However, small
or negligible is of little consequence to the .1% of the beekeeping
population who might possibly end up dead!
 
> Seems to me that is a pretty small risk.  Moreover, only
> 17-20 people die per year in the U.S. of bee stings out of a pool of
> 5-10 million 'allergic' people (many of whom believe "the next sting
> will kill me"), so even if you have an adverse reaction, the risk of
> death is below meaningful measurement.
 
Unless you happen to be the poor dead slob, in which case an otherwise
insignificant statistic becomes an monumental event!  This whole
discussion started because someone (was it Dave Cawley?) stated that
he had a not common reaction to a bee sting, for which he followed his
usual routine - get out of the beeyard and take a couple ibuprofens to
relieve the pain.  Well, there exists the small insignificant statistical
possibility that the ibuprofens are exacerbating the condition, not
helping it!.  It may be the case that Dave had a weird reaction.  I had
a single sting incident this summer that ended up with me in the
emergency room, followed by the benedryl shot, epipen subscription and
advice to find a new hobby.  Subsequent stings came with my normal
reaction - curse the bee, scrape the stinger and forget about it.  Was
it ibuprofen?  No, I avoid "Any-profen" based on the article I posted.
Was is statistically insignificant?  Based on the number of stings I've
received vs the numbers of severe reactions of that magnitude I've had,
it WAS statistically insignificant.  But based on the severity of the
reaction, that insignificant statistic became VERY SIGNIFICANT in
Aaron Morris' universal set of possible sting reactions.
 
> Fascinating, isn't it?  I personally feel that these new drugs can do
> wonders for pain and suffering (and are a hell of a lot safer than
> steroids) and would hardly let such anecdotal reports bother me.  If
> a mechanism for the supposedly correlated effects between ibuprofen
> and systemic reaction is demonstrated, I might become a believer.
> Otherwise, I am a great believer in the power of rare random
> effects emerging from a huge population of individuals being stung
> and taking any given drug.
 
No argument about the potential benefits of new drugs, but given the
way you embrace statistical analysis, I doubt the numbers exist to sway
you against "any-profens", and in the realm of statistics you should not
be swayed - you are in the set of individuals who will not display any
correlation between anyprofens and adverse bee sting reactions.  So
profen on Justin!  However, don't discount the possibility that the
minute subset of correlation cases exists!  I have not seen other than
anecdotal testimony that the correlation exists and I would welcome
studies which could prove or disprove the claim.  But even if there
were studies to prove of disprove, they would only be studies such that
the set of those studied fell within 2.9 standard deviations of the test
hypothesis and we can be reasonably sure that the test hypothesis is
true or false.  In the meantime, we have the members falling in the .1
standard deviation who have been "proven" wrong.  Small consequence to
the statistically insignificant dead ibuprofen takin' beekeeper from
Pennsylvania or South Carolina.  Embrace statistics, it's a wonderful
science!  But UNDERSTAND statistics!  I am not saying ALL beekeepers
should avoid anyprofens, but every beekeeper should be aware that
some beekeepers has displayed adverse reactions to a combination of
anyprofen and bee stings.  Is Dave one?  Beats the hell out of me, but
I'm happy to know that he is at least aware that other beekeepers have
reported this problem and he might want to examine that possibility.
 
> ... in _The_Hive_and_the_Honey_Bee_ published by
> Dadant.  Many beekeepers already have this book, and if not, where
> else can one buy 1324 pages of great information for only $36.
>
> Justin Schmidt
 
To which I say, "Right On!"
 
Aaron Morris - thinking there's significance in insignificance!