In regards to: > From: Justin Schmidt <[log in to unmask]> > Subject: Bee sting hype > People, including beekeepers love to worry about diminishingly > improbably events. Take for example the ibuprofen flurry lately. > Simple statistics can be enlightening... Yes, but one of the first things one learns and the last thing one should forget in a first level statistics class is that there are lies, damned lies, maps and statistics! You can (and did) work the figures such that the occurrences of a correlation between "Any-profen" and anaphylactic shock or death are small, even negligible. However, small or negligible is of little consequence to the .1% of the beekeeping population who might possibly end up dead! > Seems to me that is a pretty small risk. Moreover, only > 17-20 people die per year in the U.S. of bee stings out of a pool of > 5-10 million 'allergic' people (many of whom believe "the next sting > will kill me"), so even if you have an adverse reaction, the risk of > death is below meaningful measurement. Unless you happen to be the poor dead slob, in which case an otherwise insignificant statistic becomes an monumental event! This whole discussion started because someone (was it Dave Cawley?) stated that he had a not common reaction to a bee sting, for which he followed his usual routine - get out of the beeyard and take a couple ibuprofens to relieve the pain. Well, there exists the small insignificant statistical possibility that the ibuprofens are exacerbating the condition, not helping it!. It may be the case that Dave had a weird reaction. I had a single sting incident this summer that ended up with me in the emergency room, followed by the benedryl shot, epipen subscription and advice to find a new hobby. Subsequent stings came with my normal reaction - curse the bee, scrape the stinger and forget about it. Was it ibuprofen? No, I avoid "Any-profen" based on the article I posted. Was is statistically insignificant? Based on the number of stings I've received vs the numbers of severe reactions of that magnitude I've had, it WAS statistically insignificant. But based on the severity of the reaction, that insignificant statistic became VERY SIGNIFICANT in Aaron Morris' universal set of possible sting reactions. > Fascinating, isn't it? I personally feel that these new drugs can do > wonders for pain and suffering (and are a hell of a lot safer than > steroids) and would hardly let such anecdotal reports bother me. If > a mechanism for the supposedly correlated effects between ibuprofen > and systemic reaction is demonstrated, I might become a believer. > Otherwise, I am a great believer in the power of rare random > effects emerging from a huge population of individuals being stung > and taking any given drug. No argument about the potential benefits of new drugs, but given the way you embrace statistical analysis, I doubt the numbers exist to sway you against "any-profens", and in the realm of statistics you should not be swayed - you are in the set of individuals who will not display any correlation between anyprofens and adverse bee sting reactions. So profen on Justin! However, don't discount the possibility that the minute subset of correlation cases exists! I have not seen other than anecdotal testimony that the correlation exists and I would welcome studies which could prove or disprove the claim. But even if there were studies to prove of disprove, they would only be studies such that the set of those studied fell within 2.9 standard deviations of the test hypothesis and we can be reasonably sure that the test hypothesis is true or false. In the meantime, we have the members falling in the .1 standard deviation who have been "proven" wrong. Small consequence to the statistically insignificant dead ibuprofen takin' beekeeper from Pennsylvania or South Carolina. Embrace statistics, it's a wonderful science! But UNDERSTAND statistics! I am not saying ALL beekeepers should avoid anyprofens, but every beekeeper should be aware that some beekeepers has displayed adverse reactions to a combination of anyprofen and bee stings. Is Dave one? Beats the hell out of me, but I'm happy to know that he is at least aware that other beekeepers have reported this problem and he might want to examine that possibility. > ... in _The_Hive_and_the_Honey_Bee_ published by > Dadant. Many beekeepers already have this book, and if not, where > else can one buy 1324 pages of great information for only $36. > > Justin Schmidt To which I say, "Right On!" Aaron Morris - thinking there's significance in insignificance!