Back to the original post. 

1) With our classes, I've seen no evidence of a waning of new beekeepers, nor have the bee supply companies that I keep in touch with.  In fact, demand seems to be increasing.2) An unexpected outcome is that at least in MT, WA there are more and more professional beekeepers coming out of almonds willing to makeup and sell packages or nucs in state.
3) That takes some of the pressure off of having to go to CA to get bees or having them shipped in from the south.4) If Bee Supply firms can make a $50 price hike and sell all of their packages, some will.  Those who sell for more reasonable prices are likely to attract more customers.  If you don't like the price, find another supplier.5) A sudden hike should stimulate the local suppliers or commercial beekeepers returning from almonds and stone fruits.
The missing part of this is what happens before and as bees go into almonds.  If there's significant varroa problems from last summer, a wave of some virus or other disease that causes increased bee losses, the commercial folks will suddenly need to increase their queen orders.
Never forget, as the APHIS training model for veterinarians states:  "Most beekeepers are hobbyists".  They forgot the part that "Most colonies are owned by Professional Beekeepers".

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