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Wed, 9 Mar 2005 05:35:25 EST |
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Naomi,
The following website is a WHO/UNAIDS website with most recent stats in the
world. I believe you would find stats on Africa there. I think it vitally
important when reporting these stats that writers make sure that they include the
fact that these stats are "provisional," "estimates;" and if they are
similiar to US CDC stats, they are "cumulative." (meaning that if you had 10 cases
last year and you had two more this year the number would be 12 not 2--thus
one would assume that hiv/aids was on the increase when actually it was on the
decline). In fact this website states that one should not use current
estimates in comparisons of past years or future years.
There is a massive difficulty in obtaining accurate statistics from countries
in which basic things that we take for granted don't exist-such as dependable
electricity. Many countries are dependent on generators--electricity being
intermittant. Generators are dependent on gasoline (after the hurricanes here
in Florida I know about this quite well). Gasoline in some nations is of
limited supply and expensive. Thus there is a level of chaos that makes number
taking difficult.
I just finished a first reading of a paper by David T. Dunn called "A review
of statistical methods for estimating the risk of vertical human
immunodeficiency virus transmission." It was his numbers in 1992 that established the
risk of breastfeeding, 14%, that we still treat as written in stone. In this
1998 paper written in the International Journal of Epidemiological he states,
"The standard method for estimating HIV vertical transmission risk is biased
and inefficient." At one point he states that maternal antibodies in infants
have been detected up to age 24 months and most studies have used the 15 month
to 18 month threshold. Thus in my mind research and the basis of our current
policies on transmission of hiv from mother to child is thrown into
question. Estimates are just educated guesses and I believe it is necessary when
relaying this information to the general public to emphasis that the numbers may
not reflect reality. In fact they may be very deceptive.
Valerie W. McClain
http://www.unaids.org/was/2004/EPlupdate2004_html_en/epi04_00_en.htm
"The UNAIDS/WHO estimates in this document are based on the most recent
available data on the spread of HIV in countries around the world. They are
provisional. UNAIDS and WHO, together with experts from national AIDS programmes and
research institutions, regularly review and update the estimates as improved
knowledge about the epidemic becomes available, while also drawing on advances
made in the methods for deriving estimates. Because of these and future
advances, the current estimates cannot be compared directly with estimates from
previous years, nor with those that may be published subsequently."
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