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Hello, all:

This is a contrarian and thought-provoking article from Business Week  
citing a recently published Urban Institute study. This study argues  
that the data suggesting a shortage in well-educated American  
scientists, mathematicians, and engineers is based on flawed  
methodology; that more engineers and scientists are created than can  
be absorbed by the job market; that American students do not lag  
their international peers; and that the average amount of math and  
science taken in high school have risen significantly in the past  
decade.  The article's author is "Executive in Residence" at Duke  
University, and an entrepeneur who was born in Delhi, India and came  
to the United States in 1980. He holds a B.A. degree in computer  
science from Canberra University in Australia and a Master's degree  
in Business Administration from New York University.

The authors' own summary of their study is available at http:// 
www.urban.org/publications/1001094.html


Eric Siegel
Director and
Chief Content Officer
New York Hall of Science
www.nyscience.org
(718) 699-0005 x 317
esiegel at nyscience dot org


The Science Education Myth
Forget the conventional wisdom. U.S. schools are turning out more  
capable science and engineering grads than the job market can support

by Vivek Wadhwa

Political leaders, tech executives, and academics often claim that  
the U.S. is falling behind in math and science education. They cite  
poor test results, declining international rankings, and decreasing  
enrollment in the hard sciences. They urge us to improve our  
education system and to graduate more engineers and scientists to  
keep pace with countries such as India and China.

Yet a new report by the Urban Institute, a nonpartisan think tank,  
tells a different story. The report disproves many confident  
pronouncements about the alleged weaknesses and failures of the U.S.  
education system. This data will certainly be examined by both sides  
in the debate over highly skilled workers and immigration  
(BusinessWeek.com, 10/10/07). The argument by Microsoft (MSFT),  
Google (GOOG), Intel (INTC), and others is that there are not enough  
tech workers in the U.S.

The authors of the report, the Urban Institute's Hal Salzman and  
Georgetown University professor Lindsay Lowell, show that math,  
science, and reading test scores at the primary and secondary level  
have increased over the past two decades, and U.S. students are now  
close to the top of international rankings. Perhaps just as  
surprising, the report finds that our education system actually  
produces more science and engineering graduates than the market demands.
Junior Scientists on the Rise

These findings go against what has been the dominant position about  
our education system and our science and engineering workforce.  
Consider reports on national competitiveness that policymakers often  
turn to, such reports as the 2005 "Rising Above the Gathering Storm"  
by the National Academy of Sciences. This report says the U.S. is in  
dire straits because of poor math and science preparation. The report  
points to declining test scores, fewer students taking math and  
science courses, and low-quality curriculums and teacher preparation  
in K-12 education compared to other countries.

The call has been taken up by some of the most prominent people in  
business and politics. Bill Gates, chairman of Microsoft, said at an  
education summit in 2005, "In the international competition to have  
the biggest and best supply of knowledge workers, America is falling  
behind." President George W. Bush addressed the issue in his 2006  
State of the Union address. "We need to encourage children to take  
more math and science, and to make sure those courses are rigorous  
enough to compete with other nations," he said.

Salzman and Lowell found the reverse was true. Their report shows  
U.S. student performance has steadily improved over time in math,  
science, and reading. It also found enrollment in math and science  
courses is actually up. For example, in 1982 high school graduates  
earned 2.6 math credits and 2.2 science credits on average. By 1998,  
the average number of credits increased to 3.5 math and 3.2 science  
credits. The percent of students taking chemistry increased from 45%  
in 1990 to 55% in 1996 and 60% in 2004. Scores in national tests such  
as the National Assessment of Educational Progress, the SAT, and the  
ACT have also shown increases in math scores over the past two decades.

And the new report again went against the grain when it compared the  
U.S. to other countries. It found that over the past decade the U.S.  
has ranked a consistent second place in science. It also was far  
ahead of other nations in reading and literacy and other academic  
areas. In fact, the report found that the U.S. is one of only a few  
nations that has consistently shown improvement over time.

Why the sharp discrepancy? Salzman says that reports citing low U.S.  
international rankings often misinterpret the data. Review of the  
international rankings, which he says are all based on one of two  
tests, the Trends in International Mathematics & Science Study  
(TIMMS) or the Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA),  
show the U.S. is in a second-ranked group, not trailing the leading  
economies of the world as is commonly reported. In fact, the few  
countries that place higher than the U.S. are generally small  
nations, and few of these rank consistently high across all grades,  
subjects, and years tested. Moreover, he says, serious methodological  
flaws, such as different test populations, and other limitations  
preclude drawing any meaningful comparison of school systems between  
countries.
Enough Jobs for the Grads?

As far as our workforce is concerned, the new report showed that from  
1985 to 2000 about 435,000 U.S. citizens and permanent residents a  
year graduated with bachelor's, master's, and doctoral degrees in  
science and engineering. Over the same period, there were about  
150,000 jobs added annually to the science and engineering workforce.  
These numbers don't include those retiring or leaving a profession  
but do indicate the size of the available talent pool. It seems that  
nearly two-thirds of bachelor's graduates and about a third of  
master's graduates take jobs in fields other than science and  
engineering.

Michael Teitelbaum, vice-president of the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation,  
which, among other things, works to improve science education, says  
this research highlights the troubling weaknesses in many  
conventional policy prescriptions. Proposals to increase the supply  
of scientists and engineers rapidly, without any objective evidence  
of comparably rapid growth in attractive career opportunities for  
such professionals, might actually be doing harm.
Shortages in Specific Skills

In previous columns, I have written about research my team at Duke  
University completed that shattered common myths (BusinessWeek.com,  
7/10/06) about India and China graduating 12 times as many engineers  
as the U.S. We found that the U.S. graduated comparable numbers and  
was far ahead in quality. Our research also showed there were no  
engineer shortages (BusinessWeek.com, 11/7/06) in the U.S., and  
companies weren't going offshore because of any deficiencies in U.S.  
workers.

So, there isn't a lack of interest in science and engineering in the  
U.S., or a deficiency in the supply of engineers. However, there may  
sometimes be short-term shortages of engineers with specific  
technical skills in certain industry segments or in various parts of  
the country. The National Science Foundation data show that of the  
students who graduated from 1993 to 2001, 20% of the bachelor's  
holders went on to complete master's degrees in fields other than  
science and engineering and an additional 45% were working in other  
fields. Of those who completed master's degrees, 7% continued their  
education and 31% were working in fields other than science and  
engineering.

There isn't a problem with the capability of U.S. children. Even if  
there were a deficiency in math and science education, there are so  
many graduates today that there would be enough who are above average  
and fully qualified for the relatively small number of science and  
engineering jobs. Science and engineering graduates just don't see  
enough opportunity in these professions to continue further study or  
to take employment.
Creating Wider-Ranging Demand

With U.S. competitiveness at stake, we need to get our priorities  
straight. Education is really important, and a well-educated  
workforce is what will help the U.S. keep its global edge. But  
emphasizing math and science education over humanities and social  
sciences may not be the best prescription for the U.S. We need our  
children to receive a balanced and broad education.

Perhaps we should focus on creating demand for the many scientists  
and engineers we graduate. There are many problems, from global  
warming to the development of alternative fuels to cures for  
infectious diseases, that need to be solved. Rather than blaming our  
schools, let's create exciting national programs that motivate our  
children to help solve these problems.

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