Once again, I think we are looking for a general answer for many widely varying specific situations. 

Location, latitude altitude, sun, wind, ambient temperature and duration of cold, frequency of intermittent warming,  hive height, cluster strength, and especially cluster position will influence whether significant ice forms above the cluster.  

If the cluster is right up against the lid, this not possible.  If it is lower, then  the type, colour and insulation of the lid will factor in along with all th eother factors.

In other words, as is so often and inconvenienty the case for those looking for an answer, there are many answers -- and essentially no one answer.,

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