>> the pace and scale of change now is historically unprecedented. > I dispute the use of the term "unprecedented" Here's what CNN says about the recent Typhoon Haiyan, which recently wiped out entire towns in the Philippines: http://www.cnn.com/2013/11/10/world/asia/philippines-typhoon-haiyan/ http://tinyurl.com/m2jx4yk "Haiyan may be the strongest tropical cyclone in recorded history, but meteorologists said it will take further analysis to confirm whether it set a record. The typhoon was 3.5 times more forceful than Hurricane Katrina, which hit the United States 2005. It wasn't the storm's 250-kph (155-mph) gusts that caused most of the damage -- it was a mammoth storm surge that reached up to 5 meters (16 feet) high." The "Strongest Tropical Cyclone in Recorded History" would be "unprecedented" by any definition of the word. > The 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season has not > produced a single land-falling hurricane in the US Large and powerful Tropical Storms made US landfall and did damage in 2013. See the list below. While they were not technically "hurricanes" (74 mph+ winds), but this is a minor point. In 2013, Atlantic hurricanes and tropical storms caused 47 known fatalities and at least $1.51 billion according to NOAA. As a classic example, when "Superstorm Sandy" made landfall on the East Coast of the US, the highest wind speed was 54 knots (60 mph). It was technically a Tropical Storm when it made landfall, and did not have very impressive winds. The question to ask about specific extreme weather events is "How many of these events were caused by man-made climate change as opposed to natural variability?" This question is addressed in this report from NOAA, in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (AMS). http://www.ametsoc.org/2012extremeeventsclimate.pdf http://tinyurl.com/lyoo3gv The consensus is that in about half of the extreme events studied, they found that man-made climate change was a contributing factor. The report also noted that while all the tropical storms and hurricanes listed above were busily pounding some of my favorite places to drop anchor and snorkel, "For much of the central US, such conditions of combined scarcity of precipitation and elevated temperature [in 2012] had not been experienced since the Dust Bowl years of 1934 and 1936". According to the EPA, global average temperatures have already increased more than 1.4 degrees Fahrenheit over the last 100 years. Scientists project the Earth's average temperatures to rise between 2 and 12 degrees Fahrenheit by 2100. For every 2 degrees Fahrenheit of warming, the EPA says it expects a 5 to 15 percent reduction in crop yields; a 3 to 10 percent increase in rain during heavy precipitation events which can lead to flooding; a 5 to 10 percent decrease in stream flow and some river basins; and a 200 to 400 percent increase in the area burned by wildfire in parts of the western United States. All of the above can have dramatic and tangible impact on beekeeping, right here in the USofA, right now. Having paddled a kayak borrowed from http://eastrivercrew.org from 95th St down to the East Village to deliver prescription meds, batteries, and food to a friend after Tropical Storm Sandy, paddling between semi-buoyant bobbing cars and minivans in water higher than the roofs of UPS delivery trucks (which don't float), I can say with great authority that I have never seen such destruction in the USA, and I lived in a beachfront house just north of the Ft. Lauderdale FL "strip" of public beach all through the 1980s, a house fitted with fully gasketed storm shutters, and a pool that had to have the sand dug out of it several times after storms. Had to rebuild the deck a few times too. But let's look at the 2013 Atlantic storms: 10 Tropical Storms, and 2 Hurricanes: Andrea, the first Atlantic tropical storm of 2013 may have been "only" a Tropical Storm (65 mph winds), but it did quite a bit of damage in Florida. It remained powerful enough to maintain its "tropical storm" designation as it traveled all the way up the east coast and still had enough power to pound Newfoundland with 82 km/h (50 mph) winds. This is very rare, most hurricanes and tropical storms lose power and focus once they are over land. http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/burin-peninsula-bears-br unt-of-andrea-s-rainfall-1.1356223 http://tinyurl.com/kwdomqr Tropical Storm Barry made landfall in Guatemala, Honduras, Belize, and southern Mexico. Tropical Storm Chantal made landfall in the Caribbean. Tropical Storm Dorian's eye may have never made "US landfall", but the storm damage was done, in the Caribbean and Florida. Tropical Storm Erin only made it to halfway to the Lesser Antilles from western Africa before losing steam. Tropical Storm Fernand made landfall in Mexico, and the Mexican Navy evacuated 4,000 people from Veracruz locations. Tropical Storm Gabrielle only hit the Dominican Republic and the Caribbean. Hurricane Humberto was a Category 1 storm, doing damage in the Cape Verde Islands and sinking a freighter. Hurricane Ingrid was another Category 1 storm, making landfall at La Pesca Mexico. (Been there, there's a nice biosphere conservation park called "El Cielo" where they have a protected hatchery for turtles.) Tropical Storm Jerry collapsed into a depression from which it did not recover several hundred miles southwest of the Azores Tropical Storm Karen hit Mexico, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Florida Tropical Storm Lorenzo never made it closer than 625 mi southeast of Bermuda, an example of why most sailboat policies dictate that one keep one's boat north of Bermuda during hurricane season. (Bermuda is roughly due East of Savanah GA, and roughly due South of Nova Scotia's Sable River inlet.) Tropical Strom Melissa only affected the Azores *********************************************** The BEE-L mailing list is powered by L-Soft's renowned LISTSERV(R) list management software. For more information, go to: http://www.lsoft.com/LISTSERV-powered.html