> >>That's not what the grapevine is saying. > No use getting in a fit over speculated new crop talk. No fit intended. Just applying some logic and facts to the speculation. To summarise my points relating to the Argentinean crop: 1. Recently crop estimates have not matched recorded exports. So the estimates have greatly understated the crop. 2. They have 4,000,000 hives. A huge increase - reporting may not be keeping up with these changing dynamics. 3. Their current hive numbers will produce at least 100,000 tonnes if they equal a previous *worst* crop situation. 4. Worst crops are always accompanied by lots of noise of disaster, requests for Govt. assistance, other affected industries etc. and the noise is LOUD and nationwide. Their own monthly (Feburary) honey report does not support a nationwide failure ("worst crop for xxxxx years") of the honey crop. Argentina is a large country with diverse geographical regions. The larger the country and more diverse it is, the more stable the honey crop. e.g. the USA crop has averaged 91,000 tonnes since 1980. Its largest was 15% higher and smallest 25% lower - with decreasing hive numbers. Based on kilos per hive, Argentina has had crops 31% lower and 20.5% higher than average. The bandied figures of 60-100,000 tonnes give a range that would be between 31% and 114% lower than average. This is not suported by the available information as above. The same thing happened in the US 2006 crop. A lot of noise about crop failures etc. Outcome? 70,000 tonnes down from 79,000 the previoius year and 23% down on average (remember decreasing hive numbers). Initial crop estimates are normally excessive. i.e. our experience is that final crop outcomes *always* move towards the average from early crop estimates. It seems it is just human nature to embellish and embrace the "newsworthy". Regards, Peter Bray_________________________________________________________ Airborne Honey Ltd., Pennington St, PO Box 28, Leeston, New Zealand Fax 64-3-324-3236, Phone 64-3-324-3569 http://www.airborne.co.nz [log in to unmask] ****************************************************** * Full guidelines for BEE-L posting are at: * * http://www.honeybeeworld.com/bee-l/guidelines.htm * ******************************************************