Bob
 
I wish we had a list of the top five candidates, but we don't.  We've  a bit 
more information about what its not, but even that is based on inadequate  
information, mostly from surveys -- because we mainly catch this thing  after the 
colonies have crashed and the bees are gone, because beekeepers won't  tell 
us that they have a problem - so we can't get samples, and because people  
spend more time and energy making guesses about causes CCD and listing all of  the 
reasons about why they have the answer, than they do on filling out surveys,  
volunteering to take samples, and other activities that might help us sort  
this out.   
 
My apologies for being blunt, but it takes little effort to hold forth on a  
favorite theory, much more to do something about the problem.
 
If everyone on this list would skip one day of on-line time on Bee-L and  use 
that time to fill out a survey (_www.beesurvey.com_ 
(http://www.beesurvey.com) ), I could at least get  enough input to more reasonably rule out some of 
the possible causes -- but I'm  not basing recommendations on a hand full of 
inputs.  So far, I have  an insignificant number of returns to make any 
meaningful declarations.   But the early returns certainly contain some hints that may 
or may not prove  out.  But if I tell you too much before getting any more 
returns, I will  bias the outcome as people fill out survey to either prove me 
right or  wrong.
 
I'm focusing on surveys because they could provide immediate  insights.  In 
theory, the only time constraint is how long it takes people  to download, fill 
out, and mail back or fill out on-line - which shouldn't take  more than an 
hour or so, even for large beekeepers.  I'd like to see an  avalanche of 
surveys by this coming Wednesday - but I have no control over  that.  All of the bee 
equipment suppliers and national associations have  promised to help 
distribute surveys - but it can happen now, if the list were to  respond, and if every 
member of this list would contact beekeepers who don't  belong to the list.  
In fact, the computer literate members of this list  could down load forms for 
those who don't use computers.
 
The disease (virus, nosema, amoeba, fungi, etc.), chemical (disease  
produced, pesticide, beekeeper introduced, industrial), and other lab-based  tools and 
procedures that we are using are on a bit of a witch hunt, which  mean we 
have some specific ideas that so far haven't been revealing any smoking  guns, 
and lots and lots of other candidates, some known, some suspected, and  some 
unknown to look at.  
 
Remember, we were only in CA a week ago, and comparing east coast with west  
coast samples is critical.  The initial wave of CCD in the east revealed  lots 
of things, like the fungi that Dennis suspects, but we need time to see if  
its in the colonies on the west coast -- at least those that did were not  
transported from the east.
 
So, it will take time, and it will cost money for the disease and chemical  
work.  The survey work could be done in less than a week, if beekeepers  were 
to respond.  That in my mind is the fastest way to narrow the field of  
possibilities - at least as far as management practices that may either mitigate  or 
may induce expression of the CCD.
 
Jerry
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