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Informed Discussion of Beekeeping Issues and Bee Biology

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From:
Bill Truesdell <[log in to unmask]>
Reply To:
Informed Discussion of Beekeeping Issues and Bee Biology <[log in to unmask]>
Date:
Mon, 21 Feb 2005 10:46:37 -0500
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Peter Borst wrote:

>  Tim Barnett and David Pierce of Scripps Institution used a
> combination of computer models and real-world "observed" data to capture
> signals of the penetration of greenhouse gas-influenced warming in the
> oceans. The authors make the case that their results clearly indicate that
> the warming is produced anthropogenically, or by human activities.

(Since this appears to be a thread that will not die, here is some more
fuel to warm us on a cold winters day.)

Any time I see "computer models" a flag goes up. That is the problem in
a nutshell.

GIGO is a fundamental truth for anyone working with computer code.
Garbage in Garbage out. When I worked with Sperry I quickly found that
the computer program we were to use on one of our US Navy ships was just
fine in the confines of a building and operated by those who wrote the
code, but failed miserably when operated by sailors. They did not go by
the book.

Neither does weather.

This sounds a lot like those stock market analyze programs. Great in
hindsight, lousy in prediction.

Again, remember as verified by historical measurements (in millions of
years), there has always been a CO2 increase before an ice age, well
before SUVs. Plus, "global" warming has been verified on other planets.
Which always brings us back to the sun as the true engine of climate
change. And it has been in a 300 year warming cycle.

As far as bees go, I have enough trouble keeping up with current climate
changes than to worry about a theory based on human coded computer
programs of where the weather is going to go in the next hundred years.
I have little idea of what it will be like in a month.

However, as a public service for those that are worrying, I suggest
reading Shakespeare's King Lear (not related to the jet of the same
name) and how well he did with the tides.

For those interested in the jet, a shorter piece is below.

http://www.centennialofflight.gov/essay/GENERAL_AVIATION/lear/GA13.htm

Bill Truesdell (outside is snow and 6F. Where is global warming when you
need it?)
Bath, Maine

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