With a queen population size of 40 your probably going to lose.

If you are trying for natural selection (no creationism flames please, I
am entitled to my opinions) to emerge you will need a sufficient
population size to select out survival traits.  Applying interventions
reshuffles the selection deck unless you move the treated colonies
sufficiently far enough away that their drones won't interfere with your
promising colonies. You can requeen them later out of the selected stock
to bring them back into your population sample.

Besides population size the frequency of queen turnover is the second
element of selection.  With small populations of 40-75 (it's the number
of queens in your mating area not bees that determines your population
size) it is hard to survive where there is the 96% mortality suggest by
the Lusby's experience.  The slow progression of mites can mean a wait
of a year or two for superior traits to become visible.  In addition,
unless you artificially inseminate your queens offspring will come from
a dozen or more drones reducing the chances to less than 8%-10% the
traits will be in the new queens you raise. This puts your overall
chances at less than 1/2 a percent of success. With 40 colonies you
would have a .2% chance of success.

Moreover, resistance to mites and diseases is a complex interaction of
multiple traits that may or may not express themselves consistently.

Treating your hives is a decision you have to make based on health,
belief of the relative safety / danger of treatment, your markets
beliefs in the relative safety / danger, and your personal financial
ability to withstand repeated colony failures.  You could try requeening
from more resistant stock but just letting the colonies go you are up
against pretty significant odds.

People who are successfully battling mites and disease are employing
multiple methods - environment, brood comb size, diet, hive structure
(drone comb ratio) etc.  So don't limit your efforts to any one solution
(like chemicals).

Brent Farler

Besides Sucrose Octenate will eliminate all your problems next year.:>)




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