>In other words how do you jump from a “degree
of risk” to an   “inevitability”?

Percent risk x some number of years eventually equals near 100% certainty.

>Also, I would like to know what is of
more risk to you as a pollinator of almonds,

Assuming that viruses mutate randomly, the bigger the pool, the more chance
of a virulent mutation.  Continents tend to isolate the dispersal of said 
mutations,
unless we help them to cross oceans.  It's bad enough in almonds being 
exposed
to every germ in the US.  Worse to be exposed to every germ in the world.

Randy Oliver 

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