While some downplay the risk of losing too many bees from drift-back 
when moving splits, I have, on occasion had that problem.  When 
I have, the splits simply did not do much that year.

It is all a function of timing and topography and judgement.  IMO, 
you are wise to worry and to be overly careful if not absolutely 
sure what is going on around you.  There are many factors which 
might affect the outcome if the bees are close enough to drift back.

What happens to splits if the field force drifts back depends on 
many factors:

* The age of the sealed brood in the split and whether there are 
   enough bees left to cover it and keep it warm to emergence.  Bees 
   will remain for open brood, but as for sealed brood, not so much.

* Is there open brood and enough bees an food on hand to feed 
   it plus the new brood when it hatches, if a queen is present or 
   the new queen mates?
 
* The age distribution of the bees at time of splitting and whether 
they are actively on a flow or just sitting around with little to do.  

* The location of local flows in relation to the new location.

* The way the splits are made and whether all the bees come from 
   one hive or several.

* How many new combs from storage are added to the splits.

* The presence or absence of a queen and the condition of the 
   cell introduced if that is the method.  Some are duds.

* The weather, strain of bees, whether the conditions become 
   warm and sunny with a flow or figid and wet in the time that 
   the bees are adapting.

Here, if the timeing is right, we can do everythinmg wrong and 
the sealed brood will emerge, a flow will start up, the queen will
 mate and all wil be fine, but if the weather gets cold, the food 
is scarce, the bees covering the brood die off, and the queen 
cell gets chilled, the splits will not succeed.

Maybe you can predict the weather, but we can't.

Hot weather brings its own problems.

Of course, I have just mentiojned a few of the more obvious 
considerations.

Do you have ants?

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