> if Australia had had small hive beetles prior to the arrival of
> small hive beetles in North America, and if small hive beetles 
> hadn't been any worse for Australian beekepers than they are for 
> South African beekeepers, would Australian imports still have 
> been approved?  

Strictly speaking, if the US was SHB-free, it could have refused 
to allow bee imports from the areas of Oz infested with SHB, but 
not from any area quarantined off from the SHB infested area.

But do quarantines work?  No, they never have, not with any 
invasive species or pest.  So, it would have been a losing battle.  
The SHB would have spread, and forced an honest 
party to admit that SHB had spread across all of Oz.

> How many hypothetical failures do we need to "realize,"
> so to speak, before we learn our lesson?

To me these types of events are not hypothetical failures.
They are real and tangible.

But it is premature to think that "IAPV" is a failure of anything 
other than a research project where the wheels came off.  
It cannot be said for certain that IAPV was even found.  
Fragments of genes do not a virus make. Could be, but not for 
certain by any means.

By the way, the paper, the supplement, the press conference 
audio, and play-by-play commentary and analysis are now in 
one place:

http://bee-quick.com/reprints

******************************************************
* Full guidelines for BEE-L posting are at:          *
* http://www.honeybeeworld.com/bee-l/guidelines.htm  *
******************************************************