Hi all
I should also have mentioned the age of the queen. Hives with a queen from the current year rarely swarm, whereas the likelihood of swarming (all other things being equal) increases exponentially with age. 

Swarming is certainly a weighty topic. E. J. Dyce wrote:

> The three greatest economic problems in bee management are brood diseases, wintering, and swarming. While the first two are important, the subject of swarm control opens op a discussion which generally develops into a lengthy debate.

He went on to type a 250 page thesis, including more than 800 references.

Dyce, E. J. (1927). A study of the swarm control of bees (Doctoral dissertation, McGill University Libraries).

(I can email this to anyone who wants to read it, contact me directly. PLB)

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