>
> allen dick <[log in to unmask]> wrote:
>
>>Curious statement when just about every scientist  working on the
>>problem has concluded otherwise.  Just because some truth may be
>>inconvenient does not justify going into denial.
>
>
> Is this a fair reply to the rational comments made previously?  I suspect
> not.  Using words like 'truth', 'denial', and phrases like, 'just about
> every' tends to muddy the water.  Those of us who have followed the topic
> for a half-century or more are intrigued by the political spin placed on
> this discussion and suspect that the dogma attached has to do more with
> geopolitics than with science.

Err yes, it is fair reply I think. Why? Because whilst those two who
commented previously certainly were sure of themselves, they didn't
quote any evidence to back up their beliefs which sound 'rational' but
who knows?

Now whilst I agree that very few of the arguments FOR global
warming/climate change based on CO2 etc have been reported accurately by
the media (your comment about dumbing down is no doubt correct), isn't
it likely that inaccuracies and dumbing down are also present in the
reports of arguments AGAINST global warming?

As for those (not people on this list) who wish to use the arguments for
"geopolitics", surely no one thinks that these types are all outside the
good ole US of A? :-)

Frankly, I don't know what the real answer is because I haven't had time
to investigate the arguments in any detail and I don't particularly
trust journalists (even those from what are IMO fairly respectable
publications like New Scientist to name an example) to get the facts
right. So where does that leave me? Probably agreeing with you that:

> ....I doubt any thinking person -- and the two who have
> commented are obviously thinking more than many -- is denying that we
> (humans) are having _some_ effect on the climate....

But I'd like to return to a very pertinent question that you ask at the
end of your response:

> Are we expecting immediate climate changes that will affect beekeeping?
>

Maybe the answer to this is that we should be looking at changes in
microclimate caused by local actions rather than the possibly more
difficult to estimate global climate changes caused by CO2 etc (of
course the two may well be related in some way but we probably won't
ever have a decent handle on that relationship). Having spoken to quite
a few beekeepers in Tasmania in the course of my research I can say that
based on roughly 40 years of their experience that they have observed
(micro)climate changes affecting beekeeping/bees.

An example is hydro power construction of large dammed lakes which has
affected nectar yields from the main nectar producing plant (Leatherwood
or Eucryphia lucida) in the south-west of Tasmania. Local climate used
to be warm/hot with drizzle, but now much cooler after new lakes were
constructed. The observation is that yields have decreased.
Coincidentally and perhaps supporting this observation is botanical
research showing that Leatherwood flowering can be delayed by a month or
more if the average summertime temperature is one degree less than
normal. Such a change moves the flowering period into cooler, less
stable weather where trees lose flowers earlier and bees have more
difficulty accessing flowers at higher elevations or in the partially
shaded understorey.

Anecdotal you might say? Well maybe, especially as more modern/better
understood beekeeping techniques, loss of resource to clearfelling and
burning and new access to other areas of Leatherwood plus a host of
other (possibly unknown) variables have hidden any effects on production
stats. Yet the observation has been made by a number of those who have
been out there for 40 years and it deserves investigation. Whether we
have the data to prove it scientifically is another question, but it is
an observation and we certainly can't ignore it in any future
considerations, especially as the nectar resource is known by botanists
to be pretty sensitive to variations in summertime temps.

I suspect we as beekeepers/scientists interested in beekeeping should at
least be making these observations more widely known so that they can be
explored to the best of mankinds poor ability/understanding - after all
in many cases beekeepers have been making continuous observations longer
than any other scientists (botanists, foresters etc) in these areas!

Cheers,
Simon

http://au.geocities.com/tasbeekeepers

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