>
> >No offense intended to those who have bees that overwinter in milder
> climates.


No offense taken Christina : )

As reported by Fell, et al in 1977, in Ithaca, New York, which some would
consider to be northeastern U.S., "There were peak swarming periods during
the first two weeks in June and during the last week in August and the
first week in September."

A colony with an aging queen about to be superseded in September, would
have little to lose, and everything to gain (genetically) if instead of
balling the old queen, pushed her out of the hive with a small group of
protective workers.

At that time of season, the colony would have plenty of sealed brood to
replace those workers (which according to Lloyd Harris' and Heather
Mattila's data wouldn't have formed part of the winter cluster anyway.  So
I don't see any evidence to support your claim that the issuing colony
would die as a result of issuing a small (or even large) swarm at that time
of season.  Indeed, it would go into the winter with a newly-mated queen,
which plenty of research shows typically results in a better colony the
next spring.

Meanwhile, the old queen and the usurpation swarm would look for a colony
to invade.  Again, if you haven't already done so, may I suggest that you
read Wyatt Mangum's articles on the subject.  This would be a kamikaze
mission with low probability of success; but if it succeeds that queen's
genetics would have been passed on to another colony without the need to
establish and put on winter stores.

If you have a more parsimonious and biologically plausible explanation as
to the observed spike in swarming in autumn, I'd be very interested in
hearing it!

--
Randy Oliver
Grass Valley, CA
www.ScientificBeekeeping.com

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