>I agree, but you need to correspond with people in the central valley of >California and up into Oregon, where it is much warmer than Scotland (or >Oklahoma, or Colorado, or Tennessee) in the winter because of the Japanese >current, and where a great number of nervous people live. My correspondence with people in Africa and South America does not give any grounds for assumming that temperature is the key factor. In all these environments they are capable of withstanding reasonable periods of cold (even very cold) weather. In some mountain environments where cold is a relatively common occurrence scutellata or AHB are well established, yet not too far away, but beyond a relatively stable boundary, conditions can be much more benign, yet there is no ESTABLISHED scutellata or AHB. Of course these places mentioned need to be wary. It is quite probable that AHB will be found there, either from natural migration (such as Bakersfield that was mentioned) or from migratory beekeeping. The point is that if, in their natural range in Africa, or what must now be considered a natural range in Argentina, beyond which they do not seem to be able to establish long term, is now more or less fixed at or around a certain latitude, and the low to mid 30's appears to be it, then why should North America be different. I have heard the arguments about the relative sophistication of American beekeeping, and the level of winter feeding and care, making the situation special, but that is to underestimate the capabilities and methods of those in South Africa and Argentina, where they are also migratory and must prepare bees properly for winter. People in those countries are your most relevant source of information about what will ultimately happen. I agree that I cannot have ANY definitive opinion of what AHB is going to do in your country, as Scotland is unlikely ever to be affected, but while you were on the subject of maps, one was published in the bee press a few years back (one of the american journals, I forget which) which illustrated the spread of AHB in the Americas, and there was another showing the range of scutellata. In the south the latitudes were very similar. Climate must be a secondary factor as the limit is not a straight latitude line, but something akin to seasonality must be at work in this case. We may never know exactly what it is. Incidentally, Scotland is a country with a relatively mild damp maritime climate, a bit like your western seaboard from Northern Oregon up into British Columbia. We NEVER get cold approaching the horrendous 70+ degrees of frost you mention for Arizona, but then summer heat over 80 degrees is also rare. At our latitudes we should be a lot colder in winter were it not for the Gulf Stream (North Atlantic Drift). In our home area we have only had lying snow for 5 mornings all winter this year (it is usually more). A lot like your mention of the affect of the Japanese current in your own country. Throwing in the latitude factor as a likely limiting factor was not something I arrived at independently (a large amount of correspondence with beekeepers both in Africa and North America took place at the time), nor is it meant in any way to be some kind of definitive pronouncement on the issue. It is meant more as a discussion issue than anything else, but it may also indicate that the scare stories of the whole of North America being swamped by AHB are not actually the likely outcome. Despite the migratory beekeeping, and your relative sophistication of management, the spread has slowed dramatically since its arrival in the southern states. The question you need to answer is why. Is it due to your levels of surveillance. (Do you really think you are catching almost all such swarms?) OR, is the natural, as yet unknown, limiting factor starting to kick in and arrest their rapid progress north. I guess that in 10 years the line will be relatively stable with seasonal incursions across it. Only then will you know. -- Murray McGregor