All right, maybe I'm not as clear in my own head about this as I should be!
In fact, now that I've sat down and figured it out, you're right, it's not
64 times the risk, it's only six times.  I stand corrected.

First, let's assume that the 1 SIDS death per 1,000 births reflects the rate
from birth to 6 months (as you said, it's really only 95% of the SIDS
deaths, but let's assume for simplicity that it's 100% of the SIDS deaths,
so that no child after 6 months of age will die of SIDS).

Let's take 200,000 babies at birth and divide them into 100,000 who will be
formula-fed from birth, and 100,000 who will be exclusively breastfed for
six months.

Let's assume for simplicity that no babies die from anything else during
this time either.

At the end of six months, in the formula-fed group, we have had 100 deaths
from SIDS.

At the end of six months, in the breastfed group, we have had 16.39 deaths
from SIDS.

So it's not 64X the risk, it's only six times the risk.  Thanks for
helping/forcing me to think this through more realistically!  I will post
this to LactNet as well.

Kathy Dettwyler

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