Karleen,

There have been times in my life when I have searched for a figure, but i thunk the safest measure is a range. This range may or may not have been from Kathy Dettwyler (correct me if I'm wrong) and was the best we had the last time i looked. I would expect regional variations, e.g. if particular factors are more prevalent in a population. What the predisposing factors are has been subject to debate because of individual susceptibility. I am unaware of any actual studies of large enough populations to arrive at a reliable range,  These are studies that we can hope will someday be done, with a rigorous design and definitions.

My impression is that the range you cite is extrapolated from the percentage successfully initiating breastfeeding in optimal conditions, and it isn't clear to me if this was exclusive though I assume it is. I doubt that the estimated range includes any investigation at one month, also in optimal conditions.  The estimate probably takes into account what happened during dire events such as the 1870-71 Siege of Paris, when the prevalent artificial feeding was impossible. However, during the Siege of Leningrad, babies whose mothers were starving and not producing enough milk were saved by the milk bank in the building that is now St Nicholas the Wondermaker Hospital, and its subsidiary milk kitchens. I met a paediatrician who told us she was one of the babies saved by this donor milk.

Estimates I heard in Papua New Guinea thirty years ago, also without an actual study but from experienced public health people, were around the middle of the 1-5 % range you cited.

Karleen, I think you will find that figures cited in sources such as parenting books or even paediatric texts will likely all cite the same figures, without question.

Virginia

Dr Virginia Thorley
Honorary Research Fellow
School of History, Philosophy, Religion & Classics
The University of Queensland, QLD 4072
Australia

I know  that this stat has been repeated many times in different publications over the years. I am hoping that Lactnetters might assist me in identifying some of them. If you are aware of any parenting/breastfeeding books that use a % of anywhere in the 1-5% range I'd appreciate it if you could email me privately with the details. 
Thanks so much for your help.
Karleen Gribble
Australia

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